I’m Discover Crypto, and in this deep-dive I’m breaking down the market-moving comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the “flash crash” that followed, and what historic post-halving patterns tell us about where Bitcoin could top in the final months of this cycle. I’ll explain why the headlines felt bearish, why there’s a silver lining in the same soundbite, and how the historical pattern first pointed out by Ben Cowen might shape the rest of the bull run. If you want clear, practical thinking on Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing—this is for you.
Key takeaways
- The U.S. Treasury clarified it will not buy Bitcoin for a new strategic reserve; instead it will use confiscated crypto assets.
- Bitcoin experienced a rapid, sharp price drop (a flash crash) after the announcement but the government also said it will stop selling its existing seized Bitcoin holdings.
- Historical patterns across post-halving years (2013, 2017, 2021) show a consistent pattern: summer pumps into July/August, a September pullback, and a final rally to a Q4 cycle top.
- That pattern suggests a likely market cycle top in Q4 2025, and that should inform—not dictate—how you manage risk and position exposure.
- Actionable steps: review risk tolerance, consider scaling exposure, use stop-losses or hedging, and keep long-term conviction if you’re a believer in Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
Why this matters: politics, policy, and the market reaction
When a top Treasury official says, “A Bitcoin strategic reserve, we’re not gonna be buying that,” a lot of investors stop and listen—especially in a market as sentiment-driven as crypto. That quote sparked immediate price movement: Bitcoin dropped thousands of dollars in minutes. Headlines screamed: the U.S. won’t buy Bitcoin, the crypto reserve idea is dead, sell-off ensues.
But context matters. The administration’s earlier executive order laid the foundation for a new structure—a “Bitcoin reserve” and a “strategic digital asset stockpile.” That sounded bullish to some people, because the idea of a government accumulation of Bitcoin implies long-term, institutional demand. When the Treasury says it won’t be buying Bitcoin, that can feel like removing an upgrade to the demand side of the market, and the market reacted accordingly. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
The immediate market response was dramatic: a flash move that wiped thousands off the price in minutes. Why do these things happen? Because crypto markets are still relatively thin compared to traditional FX or equities, large stop clusters exist around key levels, and algorithmic traders amplify moves. A single authoritative soundbite can trigger stop-outs and liquidations that snowball quickly. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Flash crash vs. structural change
There’s a distinction between a temporary price shock and a long-term fundamental change. A flash crash—like the sudden $3,500 drop you may have seen—can be brutal in the short term but has zero bearing on whether Bitcoin’s fundamentals or the cycle structure remain intact.
In this case, the quote caused a short-term liquidity event. But the Treasury’s larger framework remains unchanged: the two stockpiles would initially be funded with seized cryptocurrency from criminal activity. That means the policy does not entail aggressive market purchases using taxpayer dollars. That’s important because it clarifies intent and the sourcing of supply for the reserve. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Parsing the public remarks: the silver lining
After the initial shock, the Treasury offered a notable piece of reassurance: it plans to stop selling the government’s existing crypto holdings. That’s a material policy decision. If prior practice involved liquidating seized crypto to cover costs, a shift to “we’re going to stop selling that” effectively removes an ongoing source of downward pressure on price. For market structure nerds, that’s a non-trivial long-term positive.
Let’s be honest—this hasn’t been a smooth romance between government agencies and crypto. The fact that the seized crypto would form the initial stockpile is aligned with enforcement and forfeiture policies, not with a strategic accumulation plan that buys on open markets. But the decision to stop sales matters because it’s a change to the supply dynamics. The government holding and not dumping seized BTC reduces expected future sell pressure. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Markets, however, often emphasize headline simplicity over nuance. “We’re not going to be buying” was an easy soundbite. The line about using seized assets and stopping sales didn’t have the initial viral punch. That’s a classic case of market psychology: the short-run price move follows the emotional headline; the slower, steadier recognition of the strategic shift into “stop selling” can be absorbed over days and weeks. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
The bigger picture: What does this mean for the bull run?
This is the heart of the question: does this Treasury clarification change the long-term bull market thesis? The short answer: no, not by itself. The longer answer: it adds nuance that can temporarily influence market dynamics, but cycle timing is governed by a complex mixture of macro liquidity, on-chain demand, miner economics, and psychology.
There are two competing narratives that often play out here. Narrative A: institutional demand from governments or big institutions is the “third rail” that will propel Bitcoin to new highs if it becomes real. Narrative B: Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics—halving-induced supply shocks, network growth, and macro liquidity cycles—drive the bull markets independent of one-off institutional actions.
The Treasury story touches Narrative A but doesn’t fulfill it. The initial administration-level conversation about a crypto reserve suggested a possible new buyer in the market. The Treasury’s clarification removed that hypothetical buyer. But history shows Q4 tops in previous post-halving years happened without government strategic purchases. That’s where Ben Cowen’s pattern becomes interesting. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Understanding the post-halving pattern
Ben Cowen identified a repeatable pattern across post-halving years: each “year after halving” (i.e., 2013, 2017, 2021) showed a similar trajectory—pump into July and August, a pullback in September, then a final rally into a Q4 top. If you map this to halving years (2012 → 2013, 2016 → 2017, 2020 → 2021, 2024 → 2025), the pattern becomes striking.
Why would this pattern repeat? There are a few plausible explanations:
- Behavioral cycles. Retail and institutional participants often follow seasonal patterns tied to fiscal quarters, bonuses, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year flows.
- Macroeconomic timing. Q3 often sees lower liquidity and a re-evaluation period, with new macro catalysts emerging in Q4.
- On-chain orphan timing. Miners, lock-ups, and investor timelines create waves of accumulation and profit-taking at similar calendar points.
Across the three prior post-halving cycles, the pattern held. You saw a summer surge, a September retrace, then a late-year push to the cycle top. If 2025 follows the same mechanics, Q4 2025 becomes a natural candidate for the cycle apex. Again—this doesn’t mean price absolutely must top then, but it’s a historically meaningful pattern worth watching. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
What the charts show (and what they don’t)
The comparison charts show three things consistently: a mid-year acceleration, a September correction, and a Q4 blow-off top. These are visible even on multi-month timeframes and three-day candle charts. But charts are descriptive, not prescriptive. They show what happened; they don’t tell you exactly why participants behaved that way—or whether the same forces will be in play this cycle.
In 2013, the market structure was very different—fewer derivatives and less leverage. Yet the seasonality persisted. In 2017, leverage was higher, and the September pullback was followed by explosive momentum into December. In 2021, despite broader macro noise (pandemic, stimulus), the pattern repeated. That lends credibility to the idea that a repeating behavioral cycle is at work. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Putting it together: Are we at the top this year?
Short answer: unlikely to be an immediate call, but Q4 becomes the highest-probability window for the cycle top if historical patterns hold. The most useful frame is probabilistic: given the historical evidence, there’s an elevated chance that the cycle top arrives in Q4 2025 after a summer run and a September correction.
We should emphasize: this is about timing probability, not price targets. You can believe in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory and still recognize that market cycles include tops and corrections. If you’re asking whether you should “sell everything now,” the answer depends on personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and whether you need liquidity. For many long-term holders, the right action is to rebalance—not exit entirely. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
My read on the current setup
Here’s how I see it unfolding. The Treasury’s soundbite introduced short-term noise and triggered a liquidity-driven drop. The message that the government will stop selling seized BTC is a medium-term positive. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics, institutional flows, ETF demand, and macro liquidity seem supportive.
Given the repeating post-halving pattern and the recent macro context, the highest-probability scenario is: continued strength into July/August, a consolidation or pullback in September, and a renewed run into Q4, where we hit the cycle top. That’s exactly what Ben Cowen outlined; I’m giving it weight because history has repeated here before. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
What I’m doing with my Bitcoin (and how you can think about your position)
First, quick disclosure: this is my personal view and not financial advice. That said, I want to be transparent about how I’m positioning given this higher-probability timeline. I’m not selling everything. I’m not fleeing the market. But I’m using a more nuanced, tiered approach:
- Review exposure vs. risk tolerance. If you’re heavily leveraged or need liquidity soon, consider de-risking earlier rather than later.
- Scale positions. Rather than an all-or-nothing sell, scale out into strength. Take profits incrementally in Q3 and Q4 on outsized gains.
- Use hedges. Options or inverse products can be used to lock in gains while staying exposed to upside if the market continues.
- Hold core conviction. Keep a core allocation if you’re a long-term believer. This core is invested for years, not quarters.
- Rebalance systematically. Use a rules-based approach to rebalance exposure at predefined thresholds or schedules rather than emotion-driven timing.
This approach aims to capture upside while managing the risk that historical cycles often end with sharp reversals. If Q4 2025 indeed represents a cycle top, those who scaled profits will be in a better position to redeploy at lower levels. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Concrete adjustments you can consider
- Set target sell bands: e.g., sell 10–25% of holdings at predefined price points or percentage gains.
- Establish a rainy-day fund: make sure you have 6–12 months of cash so you’re not forced to sell into volatility.
- Don’t be overly leveraged: margin amplifies risk and can force exits at the worst times.
- Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into derivatives hedges if you want downside protection without fully exiting spot exposure.
- Keep at least a trim-and-hold mindset: trim on rallies, hold a long-term core, and redeploy during weakness.
If you prefer simpler actions, just reduce allocation to a level where you can comfortably sleep at night. That’s the most practical guidance for most people. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Practical risk-management checklist
Here’s a short checklist you can use right now to review your Bitcoin position and preparedness for a possible Q4 top scenario:
- Do I know my time horizon? (Short-term trader vs. long-term investor)
- How much of my net worth is in crypto? Is this an acceptable concentration?
- Do I hold any positions with margin or leverage? If yes, can I survive a 50% drop?
- Do I have a defined sell plan or profit-taking rules?
- Have I set up secure custody for core holdings (hardware wallets, multi-sig)?
- Have I considered tax implications of any planned trades or sales?
- Do I have hedges or insurance (options, inverse ETFs) to protect a portion of gains?
Work through this checklist honestly. Market cycles punish overconfidence, not humility. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Addressing common questions and objections
“If the government doesn’t buy, isn’t this bearish?”
Not necessarily. Government purchases would be an incremental and symbolic source of demand. But they’re not necessary for a bull market. Past cycles saw major price appreciation without direct government accumulation. The market has many demand drivers: retail adoption, ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign wealth interest, and improved custody and regulatory clarity. The removal of a hypothetical buyer is not the same as a structural collapse in demand. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
“Why does September correct historically?”
September often aligns with liquidity normalization after summer, tax planning windows, fiscal quarter adjustments, and institutional rebalancing. These end-of-quarter dynamics can trigger take-profits or repositioning. The repeatability across cycles indicates persistent behavioral or structural forces at play. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
“Is Q4 always the top?”
Historically in the post-halving years we referenced, Q4 was the top. That’s three data points (2013, 2017, 2021) that align. But history is not destiny. Q4 is the highest-probability window given past patterns, but markets can surprise. Keep probability and risk management front-and-center. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Scenario planning: three plausible paths
It helps to think in scenarios so you can prepare. Here are three plausible paths for the remainder of the cycle and how you might position for each.
Scenario A — Baseline (Historical Repeat)
- Summer rally into July/August followed by a September correction and a Q4 top.
- Action: Scale profits during the late summer rally, tighten hedges before September, and protect gains in Q4.
- Probable outcomes: Significant late-year volatility, possible multi-month drawdown after the top.
Scenario B — Acceleration
- ETF inflows, macro liquidity, and strengthening on-chain metrics push the price higher into an earlier Q4 or even late Q3 top without a pronounced September correction.
- Action: Take partial profits on rallies; maintain hedges and prepare to redeploy if correction follows a sharper blow-off top.
- Probable outcomes: Rapid profit-taking opportunities but heightened risk of a sharp reversal.
Scenario C — Disrupted Cycle
- Unexpected regulatory actions, macro shocks, or large sell pressure from major holders disrupt the pattern and cause a deeper drawdown outside the historical window.
- Action: Reduce leverage, maintain cash reserves, and only incrementally reenter on confirmed levels of stability.
- Probable outcomes: Extended consolidation or bear move; opportunities for value buys for long-term holders.
Plan for the baseline but remain flexible. Use Scenario B and C as guardrails—if the market starts to behave like B or C, adjust quickly. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
On-chain indicators to watch
If you want more data-driven signals beyond cycle seasonality, watch these on-chain metrics closely:
- Exchange net flows: sustained outflows to cold storage can indicate accumulation; large inflows often precede sell pressure.
- Realized profit/loss: spikes in realized profit commonly coincide with major tops and corrections.
- Active addresses and transaction counts: increasing activity often supports sustainable price moves.
- Long-term holder supply change: if long-term holders significantly reduce holdings, that can precede a top.
- Miner selling pressure: look at miner outflows relative to revenue—if miners start selling heavily it adds supply pressure.
Combine these with market structure indicators (funding rates, open interest, option skew) for a fuller picture. The post-halving seasonality is useful, but coupling seasonality with on-chain and derivatives data gives a more robust edge. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Practical next steps for investors
If you’re unsure what to do next, here are practical steps to consider over the coming months:
- Audit your allocation: ensure you’re not overexposed relative to your risk tolerance.
- Build liquidity buffers: cash or stablecoins to capitalize on dips.
- Set alerts and plan profit-taking bands for Q3 and Q4.
- Secure long-term holdings in cold storage with best practices for seed security and multi-sig.
- Follow on-chain and derivatives metrics weekly—not hourly—to avoid overreacting to noise.
- Consider gaining exposure to hedging instruments if you want downside protection without fully exiting spot positions.
Remember: markets reward preparation. You don’t need perfect timing to do well—just rules that protect capital and allow you to capture upside. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Final thoughts and a personal note
Let me leave you with a few closing reflections. The Treasury’s statement was headline-catching, but the story is nuanced and contains a silver lining: stopping the sale of seized Bitcoin can be a positive structural change. The flash crash was painful but short-lived, a reminder of crypto’s unique market dynamics. The broader cycle dynamics—particularly the post-halving pattern Ben Cowen highlighted—still matter.
Historically we’ve seen similar calendar patterns repeat, and that suggests a Q4 top is a high-probability event for the post-2024 halving cycle. That doesn’t mean you should panic-sell. Instead, think probabilistically: scale exposure, hedge selectively, and protect capital. I’m not dropping my core BTC position. I’ll trim into rallies and manage risk proactively.
Whether you’re an active trader, long-term holder, or somewhere in between, the combination of policy nuance, market behavior, and historical pattern should guide your plan—not headlines alone. And if you want to keep sharpening your strategy, review the metrics we mentioned and make rules you can follow when the market inevitably gets emotional again. Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
Thanks for reading. Keep your life, goals, and risk tolerance in the driver’s seat—markets will do what they do. See you at the top (or on the other side of the next retrace). Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing
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