Hello — Josh here from Crypto World. In this deep-dive I break down the exact technical picture I talked about on my latest video, and how I'm positioning my trades across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, XRP and Chainlink. If you follow my channel you know I call things like bearish divergences and support zones in advance. In this article I’ll explain the charts, the why behind my trade sizing and stops, and the practical steps you can take whether you trade spot or use leverage.
Throughout this piece I’ll repeatedly reference the core themes that matter for market participants: Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing — because understanding these forces helps you place smarter trades and decide whether to protect profits or add exposure. I’ll also explain how indicators like RSI and MACD, price structure, and liquidity>levels combine to give us a higher-probability edge.
What you’re about to learn
- How to read bearish divergences and why they matter for Bitcoin and major altcoins.
- Exactly where I see support and resistance on BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and LINK.
- My personal trade for Ethereum (size, realized profits, remaining exposure, stop logic).
- How Bitcoin dominance affects altcoin performance and how to use that to time entries.
- Practical risk management steps you can use today if you want to copy this playbook.
Key takeaway preview: We are seeing short-term bounces that can trick traders into thinking the bull trend is back in full force. The weekly and daily bearish divergences on several major assets suggest a higher probability of sideways-to-lower price action over the coming weeks or months. That doesn’t mean the long-term bull is dead — but it does mean you should be prepared and manage risk actively.
Quick context: why this market matters
If you’re tracking Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing — the market right now is at an inflection point. Macro flows from institutional entrants (ETFs, treasury allocations, custody solutions) have altered the historical four-year halving cadence, and that shifts how we should think about timing and triggers. Halvings still matter, but with billions from institutions and new onramp products, price behavior can deviate from textbook cycle patterns.
I’m not here to speculate on what 2029 looks like. I focus on the next few weeks and months — that’s where our probability estimates are tighter, and that’s where most swing-traders and short-term investors should concentrate their capital and risk management.
Bitcoin: weekly bearish divergence, support at ~$112k, short-term bounces possible
On the weekly timeframe Bitcoin is still showing the Supergene indicator in green — which signals that the longer-term regime remains bullish. But simultaneously we have a major weekly bearish divergence between price action (higher highs in price) and momentum (lower highs in RSI). That setup is classic: it warns of a decelerating bull market and often precedes a period of consolidation or a pullback that can take weeks to months to play out.
For traders focused on Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing — this is the key read: divergences on higher timeframes are not immediate sell signals; they are structural warnings. They change the probabilities in favor of sideways-to-lower outcomes over the medium term. Given that, we must be conservative with directional longs and respect key support levels for potential bounces.
Where price is finding support
On the daily chart Bitcoin has been gravitating toward a key zone I’ve been highlighting: roughly $110k–$112k. We bounced at this area earlier in August and also rejected from around $112k in late May. The cluster of past reactions makes the $110k–$112k area a support magnet in the near term — traders often front-run these zones which generates short-term buying interest before price actually prints the level.
On the four-hour timeframe the RSI recently hit an oversold condition during the latest drop. That oversold reading explained the immediate bounce we saw — oversold doesn’t mean trend reversal but it does often produce short-term reactions. So expect choppy behavior: mini-bounces back toward resistance (around $115k and $117k) before price resumes the dominant bias set by higher-timeframe divergence.
Momentum snapshot: MACD and RSI
On the 3-day MACD we’ve seen a little more bearish momentum, but not the intense negative momentum you’d expect in a major crash. The 4-hour RSI turning oversold and the subsequent bounce is a perfect example of market mechanics: short-term extremes get cleaned out first, and they can create relief rallies that trap eager bulls.
Key levels to watch on BTC:
- Immediate support: $110k–$112k (primary)
- Short-term resistance: $115k
- Major short-term resistance: $117k (recent rejection point)
Because we’ve already wiped out a lot of long liquidity during the drop (see liquidation heat maps), the downside fuel from stop hunts is somewhat exhausted near the current price. That doesn’t eliminate risk of further downside, it just changes the structure — there’s less concentrated long liquidity below until we approach the $112.3k mark, after which the next liquidity pocket sits around $119.5k.
How I’m managing my trades right now (practical blueprint)
Trading is about managing probability and risk. Here’s the exact structure I shared publicly and why it makes sense.
- I am watching the weekly and daily divergences and treating them as the primary context.
- On current strength I avoid large directional BTC longs because the weekly divergence increases the probability of sideways to lower outcomes over the coming months.
- I allow for short-term bounces from the $110k–$112k support zone, but I look for weakness on any retest of $115k–$117k to re-enter shorter-duration bearish exposure if the market structure supports it.
Remember: a good trader has a plan for each scenario — bullish continuation, sideways consolidation, and breakdown. For each I define entry, stop, target, and size based on odds and volatility rather than hope.
Bitcoin Dominance: why altcoins have been outperforming — and the risk of a reversal
Bitcoin dominance (BTC dominance) on the 3-day timeframe is trending lower overall — that’s bullish for altcoins relative to Bitcoin. When dominance falls it usually means altcoins are either outperforming BTC or holding up better in corrections. Since early July many large altcoins like Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, which we observed across August as altcoins caught bids.
But dominance recently had a short-term bounce — the 3-day BTC dominance RSI briefly hit oversold and rallied. Oversold to bounce setups in dominance often create multi-week retests that can be unfavorable for altcoins in the immediate term. If dominance reclaims resistance between ~60.5%–61%, many altcoins will underperform BTC during that retest.
Practical takeaway: If you trade altcoins or run altcoin allocations, monitor BTC dominance. If it starts to bounce strongly back into the 60.5–61% region, prioritize risk management for altcoin exposure and tighten stops.
Ethereum (ETH): shorts, support zone, and why I trimmed profits
Ethereum has a very clear short-term narrative. After a near-perfect rejection at $4.8k–$4.9k (close to the previous all-time high), ETH has pulled back to retest previous resistance that is now acting as support in the $3.9k–$4.1k band. That’s a textbook retest zone.
Why I shorted ETH: over the last week Ethereum has been underperforming Bitcoin on ETH/BTC charts and on the daily timeframe formed a bearish divergence between price and RSI. When an asset underperforms while the broader market weakens, the odds of a deeper pullback increase.
My ETH trade, step-by-step
- Initial short entry: roughly a few days prior to this write-up — I shared a position of slightly over $200k in notional short exposure.
- Position management: After ETH ran into the $3.9k–$4.1k support zone I took profits — reducing exposure by about half so my remaining short is roughly a $100k notional short position.
- Realized/unrealized figures (transparent reporting): So far I’ve realized roughly $5,300 in profits and hold unrealized profits of ~ $6,000. With my stop placement the worst-case scenario (if price rallies and hits my stop) still secures an additional ~$1,400 profit on top of realized profits.
Why partial profit-taking? Because we’re running into a significant multi-timeframe support area. The 3-day and weekly charts both show that $3.9k–$4.1k is a meaningful pivot. If ETH holds and bounces from there, my remaining shorts would suffer unnecessary drawdown — so I lock in gains while leaving optionality for further downside should ETH break that support.
Scenarios I’m prepared for
- ETH holds $3.9k–$4.1k and bounces: I’m flat to slightly short and look for re-entry on weakness or wait for the momentum regime to re-align.
- ETH breaks $3.9k decisively (weekly close below): I expect a structural change, and the retained small short position will likely produce a large winner as new lower support levels come into play.
- ETH rallies above $4.8k: My stops protect capital and the trade exits with net profits — I can re-evaluate if momentum flips bullish with convincing structure.
Trading lesson: don’t be stubborn. If price approaches a multi-timeframe pivot, reduce size and give the market room to make the decision. That’s how you preserve capital and profit over multiple cycles.
Remember: the same rules apply whether you trade BTC or ETH. Size to the market’s structure, not your conviction.
Cardano (ADA): confirmed bearish divergence and levels to watch
Cardano has been a frequent topic in my comments and community. On the daily timeframe ADA has already confirmed a sizable bearish divergence: higher highs in price vs lower highs in daily RSI. That pattern typically suggests a loss of bullish momentum and is a significant warning for traders who bought the highs.
Using Fibonacci retracement on the 8-hour chart we can identify sensible support levels where the price might pause or bounce. The 38.2% retracement lines up near $0.82–$0.84, which is currently the most relevant short-term support zone.
- Primary support: $0.82–$0.84 (38.2% Fib and former resistance)
- If that fails: $0.76–$0.77 (next logical horizontal support)
- Deep support if momentum collapses: $0.68–$0.71
- Resistance to watch if ADA bounces: $0.89–$0.90 (previous support turned resistance)
My view: Most likely ADA trades sideways or pulls back modestly in the coming days/weeks while this divergence works itself out. A bounce is possible from $0.82–$0.84, but expect resistance above into the high $0.80s should that bounce attempt to run. Trade sizing and stops should reflect the increased probability of short-term weakness.
XRP: weekly divergence playing out — historical precedent matters
XRP has been the poster child of an active weekly bearish divergence. I called attention to this weeks ago when price was above $3 — many in the community were confident the run would continue. The pattern that’s now playing out looks eerily similar to the last large weekly bearish divergence we saw back in late 2020 through early 2021.
Historical context: the last major weekly bearish divergence on XRP preceded a multi-month decline that produced roughly a 60% drawdown from weekly candle close to weekly candle close, and up to a 74% wick-to-wick move over several months. That’s not a guarantee of a repeat, but it shows how powerful weekly divergences can be.
What’s happening on the daily for XRP
On the daily timeframe XRP recently closed decisively below a key Fibonacci level near $2.90. A daily candle close below this level — if not quickly reclaimed — increases the short-term probability of a deeper move toward $2.75 and potentially to $2.55–$2.62 if that level fails.
Traders should be careful: short-term bounces can and will occur, but the higher-timeframe structure is currently biased toward lower price action. Manage long exposure tightly, or consider short exposure if you can properly size risk.
Chainlink (LINK): holding up but losing momentum
Chainlink is an interesting case. It hasn’t confirmed a full breakdown in bullish price structure on the daily timeframe — it still shows higher lows and higher highs. But indicators show weakening momentum: the RSI formed a lower high while the price printed a new high, which is a single confirmation towards a bearish divergence signaling waning bullish strength.
Price recently rejected near $26.70–$27.00 and is now testing the $24–$25 area. LINK is holding better than many alts, which means if a pullback happens it may be more muted relative to peers. That makes it a candidate for selective accumulation on small retracements for long-term believers, but be cautious with leveraged longs.
- Key resistance: $26.70–$27.00 (rejection level)
- Near-term support: $24–$25
- If $24 breaks: major support around $20–$21
Trading tip: If you plan to buy LINK on a dip, stagger entries and use small sizes. Momentum is waning; wait for a clear structural signal before committing full size.
Liquidity, stop hunts, and liquidation heat maps — how to read them
One of the most misunderstood topics among traders is liquidity and how markets use it. When price moves, it rarely moves in a straight line — instead it seeks out regions of liquidity (stop orders and queued market orders). Large players often hunt those liquidity clusters because triggering stops creates fast price movement that they can capture.
During the recent Bitcoin pullback we triggered and cleared many long stops that had accumulated around small prior bounces. The liquidation heat map showed these clusters being wiped out — and once you’ve cleared that fuel, you reduce the likelihood of a sharp continuation in the same direction (at least until new liquidity forms).
Practical rule: If you see a large liquidation cluster get eaten, don’t assume the move will continue indefinitely. Oftentimes those are final stops before a relief bounce. Always look for the next liquidity pocket to understand where the price may head next.
Putting it all together — actionable checklist for traders
Whether you trade futures or spot, here’s the exact checklist I use when analyzing the market for Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing:
- Identify the higher timeframe picture (weekly/daily): Are divergences present? If yes, raise caution and reduce directional aggression.
- Mark multi-timeframe support/resistance clusters (previous reaction points and Fibonacci confluences). These are where traders front-run and where liquidity piles up.
- Look at momentum indicators (RSI/MACD) across 4H/1D/3D to see how momentum is evolving.
- Check BTC dominance to understand altcoin relative strength risk. A bounce in dominance is a headwind for most alts.
- Scan liquidation heat maps to know where stops are likely concentrated — note if important buckets were already consumed.
- Size your trades based on volatility and proximity to multi-timeframe pivots — reduce exposure near high-confluence support zones.
- Use logical stop placement (beyond structure, not just arbitrary percent) and define profit targets in advance.
My active positions and why transparency matters
I’m sharing my numbers not to brag but so you can see risk management in action. My trading approach is: take large but well-hedged and quantified bets, secure profits when the risk profile changes, and keep optionality for large moves in either direction.
- Bitcoin: watching, no large directional longs due to weekly divergence. Tactical short re-entries considered on rejections at $115k–$117k with tight risk sizing.
- Ethereum: partially closed a >$200k notional short down to ~ $100k notional. Realized ~ $5,300, unrealized ~ $6,000. Remaining position is sized to capture a break of $3.9k while limiting downside if ETH holds and bounces.
- Cardano: watching for breakdown below $0.82 as a trigger for deeper short or sell-off targets; conservative sizing if buying the dip.
- XRP: bearish on the weekly structure. Will consider short exposures with proper risk if daily fails to recover above $2.90 quickly.
- Chainlink: selective accumulation on confirmed structural support but avoid leverage due to weakening RSI.
Risk management: how I protect capital in this market
Capital preservation beats hero trades. Here’s my approach:
- Partial profit-taking: Reduce size at major confluence levels to lock in gains and reduce drawdown risk.
- Stop placement: Place stops just beyond the next structural point (weekly or daily candle close beyond significant support/resistance), not arbitrary percentages.
- Position sizing: Size positions so that a single trade’s max loss is a small percentage of total risk capital — this keeps you in the game across cycles.
- Never over-leverage into a multi-timeframe divergence — that’s a high-risk environment for longs.
- Be ready to flip bias quickly if the market confirms a breakdown (e.g., ETH daily/weekly candle close below $3.9k) — that’s when smaller residual positions can win big.
Examples from recent trades — lessons learned
Lesson #1: Trade the structure, not the narrative. A week ago I took a Bitcoin long that returned >$30k because the set-up aligned with a structure-based bullish breakout. Conversely, I shorted ETH recently and made >$11k as the bearish divergence played out. Both winners — both taken by following an objective process.
Lesson #2: Use liquidity to your advantage, not against you. When you see crowded long areas, consider the odds that those areas will be targeted during a downside move. That’s how fast drops occur and why stop clustering matters.
Lesson #3: Always plan the exit before you enter. Know how you will reduce size or add size depending on outcome. A trade without an exit plan is a gamble.
What to watch in the coming weeks
- Bitcoin: weekly RSI divergence behavior and $110k–$112k support. A clean weekly candle close below $110k would materially change my view toward a deeper pullback.
- Ethereum: weekly close below $3.9k would confirm a change in structure and likely trigger further downside; conversely, a strong reclaim above $4.8k invalidates the short-term bearish thesis.
- BTC Dominance: moves back into 60.5%–61% will likely suppress altcoin strength for several weeks.
- XRP: reclaim above $2.90 quickly would reduce short-term downside risk; failure to reclaim makes $2.55–$2.62 the likely next target.
- Macro news: ETF flows, regulatory updates, and macro liquidity events can accelerate any scenario. Always respect macro catalysts even when your technicals look clean.
How to implement this in your own trading (step-by-step)
- Chart the weekly and daily for BTC and your altcoins of interest. Mark divergences and support/resistance clusters.
- Check BTC dominance and relative strength of your altcoins (e.g., ETH/BTC, ADA/BTC, XRP/BTC).
- Scan liquidation heat maps to understand where stops are concentrated.
- Decide your plan for each scenario: bounce, sideways, or breakdown. Write down entry, stop, and target.
- Size positions conservatively near multi-timeframe pivots. Take profit partials if risk profile changes.
- Review results after each trade and refine your plan — discipline compounds over time.
Key takeaways and what I’ll be doing next
1) We are in a nuanced environment where long-term bullish regimes still exist, but higher-timeframe bearish divergences increase the chance of sideways to lower price action in the coming weeks or months.
2) Bitcoin is finding near-term support around $110k–$112k, so expect short-term bounces, but don’t let those bounces lure you into overexposure. For those tracking Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing — this is the precise moment to tighten risk controls.
3) Ethereum is my active short: I reduced size to lock in profits while retaining a smaller position in case ETH breaks $3.9k. That structure gives me optionality and the ability to profit whether ETH bounces or breaks lower.
4) Cardano and XRP show clear warning signs (daily and weekly divergences) and deserve respect. Chainlink is weakening but still technically in a bullish structure — tread carefully with leverage.
5) Use liquidity and dominance readings to time entries and avoid being surprised by rapid moves driven by stop-hunts.
What I’ll be doing next: I’ll watch how BTC behaves around $110k–$112k and how ETH handles $3.9k on the weekly close. For altcoins, I’ll focus on relative strength and BTC dominance for macro confirmations. If ETH closes weekly below $3.9k I’ll let my remaining short print larger profits; if it bounces I will be more neutral and wait for a clearer edge.
Final practical checklist for today
- Mark $110k–$112k on BTC and $3.9k–$4.1k on ETH as primary zones.
- Tighten altcoin stops and reduce exposure if BTC dominance begins to retest 60.5–61% resistance.
- Use partial profit-taking near multi-timeframe pivots to preserve gains.
- Manage leverage strictly — divergences increase the risk of sharp range moves.
- Keep a market journal: record reasons for entry, exit, and what you learned.
Trading isn’t about being right all the time — it’s about surviving to trade another day and letting the edge play out. That’s how you compound gains over time in Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing.
Thanks for reading — I hope this breakdown helps you trade smarter, not harder. If you liked the style of this guide, expect more deep dives like this where I show not only what I see on the charts, but exactly how I size, protect, and adapt positions in real time.
Remember: markets change. Adjust your plan when the structure changes.
BITCOIN & ALTCOIN BOUNCE: DON'T BE FOOLED!!! — Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing. There are any BITCOIN & ALTCOIN BOUNCE: DON'T BE FOOLED!!! — Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC, Blockchain, CryptoNews, Investing in here.
