If you’ve been keeping an eye on the crypto markets—and especially the intersection of Bitcoin, crypto, BTC, blockchain technology, and investing—then this week’s news is a game-changer. Cardano (ADA), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have all been approved for inclusion in an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund). This kind of approval is huge because it opens up a new avenue for mainstream investors, especially on Wall Street, to access these altcoins through regulated financial products.
But, as with many things in crypto, there’s a catch. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the government regulator overseeing ETFs, has put a temporary hold on the process. This pause is causing some uncertainty, but it’s only a temporary bump in the road. Once it’s cleared, one of these three altcoins is poised to outperform the others—and that’s exactly what we’ll break down here.
The ETF Approval and the SEC’s Unexpected Halt
Let’s start by unpacking the news. Grayscale, a major player in crypto asset management, recently sought to convert their digital large-cap fund into an ETF. This fund includes Bitcoin and Ethereum but also holds significant portions of Cardano, XRP, and Solana. Initially, the SEC’s staff gave the green light for the fund to start trading as an ETF.
However, just a day later, the SEC commissioners stepped in to review and halt the approval. This move surprised many because the staff’s approval seemed like a done deal. Why the sudden change?
The key detail here is that the SEC staff approved the ETF through delegated authority—meaning the commissioners themselves did not cast a formal vote. Now, the commissioners are reviewing this process, effectively putting a pause on the listing.
This pause is frustrating for investors and the crypto community, but it’s important to see it as a temporary regulatory hurdle rather than a permanent blockade.
Why Is the SEC Hesitant About These Altcoin ETFs?
Wall Street is hungry for exposure to altcoins like Cardano, XRP, and Solana. They recognize the potential value these blockchain projects bring to the crypto ecosystem and the broader financial market. But the SEC’s reluctance introduces a layer of complexity.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seifar, a trusted voice in the crypto ETF space, offers two main theories:
- Old Framework Waiting for an Update: The SEC may be reluctant to approve any crypto ETF under their existing regulatory framework. They might be holding out for a new, more comprehensive framework to govern crypto ETFs before giving the final thumbs-up.
- Structural Concerns with Grayscale: There might be structural issues with Grayscale’s ETF proposal that the SEC wants to iron out before full approval. This could involve how the fund is constructed or managed.
In simple terms, the ETF can’t convert yet, but it will eventually. The timeline remains uncertain, and no one knows exactly why the stay order was issued, but the consensus is that this is a temporary regulatory pause.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Rather than guessing when the ETF approval will finalize, it’s more productive to focus on what will happen after it does. Historically, ETF approvals have been a catalyst for significant price movements—especially in altcoins. This is because ETFs make it easier for institutional investors and everyday traders to gain exposure, driving demand and price upward.
Alt Season: The Big Picture for Altcoins Like ADA, XRP, and SOL
To understand the potential impact of these ETF approvals, we need to talk about alt season. Alt season is a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, often by a wide margin. But here’s the nuance: it’s not just about altcoins going up. It’s about altcoins pumping more than Bitcoin, which signals a shift in market momentum.
One way to measure alt season is by looking at the “others” chart, which tracks the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 by market cap. This chart is best analyzed when priced against Bitcoin rather than USD. Why? Because if altcoins double in USD but Bitcoin also doubles, altcoins haven’t truly outperformed—they just kept pace.
From July last year, we’ve seen altcoins losing value against Bitcoin on aggregate. That means Bitcoin has been the stronger performer, and alt season has been elusive. But the charts are showing signs of a potential relief bounce. There’s a bullish divergence on the three-day charts, where price is making lower lows but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making higher lows. This kind of divergence often signals a reversal or upcoming rally.
The Last Mini Alt Season: What Pumped the Hardest?
Looking back, there was a mini alt season between November 5th and early December 2024. This period coincided with Donald Trump’s election, which sparked a surge in certain altcoins. But this pump was short-lived and didn’t sustain momentum.
During this mini alt season, the three altcoins in question—Cardano, Solana, and XRP—showed very different performances:
- Solana: Pumped the least, with a 69% gain over 19 days.
- Cardano: Gained significantly, pumping 321% over 28 days.
- XRP: Pumped the hardest, surging 500% in 28 days.
At first glance, XRP seems like the clear winner. However, there’s more to the story when you factor in how far each coin has fallen from its recent all-time highs.
How Far Are These Altcoins from Their Recent Highs?
This is a crucial data point when evaluating which altcoin might pump the hardest after ETF approval:
- XRP: Down roughly 33% from its recent all-time high of $3.40, currently trading around $2.26.
- Solana: Down about 48%, influenced by a spike related to Donald Trump’s meme coin launch.
- Cardano: The furthest down, about 54% from its recent high of just above $1.30.
What this means is XRP has less distance to cover to reach its previous peak, which could cap its potential upside since it might face resistance near those levels. Solana and Cardano, meanwhile, have more room to grow, but that also means they have a longer journey back to previous highs.
Which Altcoin Will Reign Supreme After ETF Approval?
So, the million-dollar question: which altcoin will pump the hardest once the ETF approval finally clears the SEC’s regulatory hurdle?
Here’s a breakdown based on the current data and market sentiment:
- XRP: While it showed the biggest pump during the last mini alt season, it’s currently the closest to its previous highs. This means resistance could slow down XRP’s rally. Additionally, XRP has been trading sideways in a range for a while, so momentum might be a bit fragile.
- Solana: This is the safest bet. Solana has a large appetite on Wall Street, and despite being down almost 50%, it has strong fundamentals and institutional interest. This combination makes it a solid candidate for strong gains when the ETF approval happens.
- Cardano: The riskiest but potentially most rewarding. Being the furthest from its all-time highs means it has the highest upside potential, but also the highest risk. If momentum picks up, Cardano could outperform the others, but it might require more patience and conviction.
Personally, I’m diversified across all three but lean heavier into Solana and Cardano due to their risk/reward profiles and the market appetite for these coins.
Understanding the Bigger Picture for Bitcoin, Crypto, and Blockchain Investing
This ETF saga highlights a few important things for anyone involved in Bitcoin, crypto, BTC, blockchain, and investing:
- Regulatory Dynamics Matter: The SEC’s role is pivotal in shaping how crypto assets enter traditional financial markets. Regulatory pauses can cause short-term volatility but often precede long-term growth.
- Institutional Appetite Is Growing: Despite the SEC’s caution, Wall Street’s interest in altcoins is undeniable. ETFs are a bridge to mainstream adoption, and once regulatory clarity arrives, expect increased inflows.
- Alt Season Could Be on the Horizon: The charts suggest a potential relief bounce and the formation of bullish divergences. This could mark the beginning of a new alt season where altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
- Risk and Reward Vary Among Altcoins: Not all altcoins are created equal. Understanding their recent performance, distance from highs, and market sentiment is critical to making smart investing decisions.
Final Thoughts: Positioning Yourself for the Next Big Move
While the SEC’s current hold on the ETF approval might feel like a setback, it’s really just a temporary regulatory pause. The approval will come, and when it does, it could unleash a wave of buying pressure on Cardano, XRP, and Solana.
Investors should watch the charts closely for signs of alt season and bullish momentum. The historical data points to XRP as the prior leader in pumps, but Solana’s institutional appeal and Cardano’s risk/reward profile make them compelling contenders for the next breakout.
Where do you put your chips? Are you backing the safest bet in Solana, the high-risk/high-reward Cardano, or the historically explosive XRP? Whatever your choice, it’s clear that ETFs are the future of crypto investing, bridging the gap between blockchain technology and Wall Street.
As always, diversify, do your own research, and stay informed. The crypto space is volatile but full of opportunity for those who understand the landscape.
Until next time, I’m DZ4Discover Crypto, and I’ll see you and your ETF bags at the top.
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