In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, making informed decisions about where to allocate your investments is critical. As we move through 2025, a compelling case is being made for prioritizing Bitcoin over altcoins in your portfolio. The insights shared by Benjamin Cowen shed light on why Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience, stability, and long-term potential compared to the more volatile altcoin market.
This article explores the current state of Bitcoin, the significance of key technical indicators, and why the altcoin market might continue to lag behind Bitcoin dominance. Whether you’re an experienced investor or just starting, understanding these dynamics can help you navigate the crypto market more confidently.
Table of Contents
- Bitcoin’s Current Market Resilience and Key Support Levels
- Understanding Bitcoin Season vs. Altcoin Season
- Portfolio Strategy: Prioritizing Bitcoin Over Altcoins
- Conclusion: Is Bitcoin the Right Bet for You?
Bitcoin’s Current Market Resilience and Key Support Levels
Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength throughout 2025, trading around the $108,000 to $110,000 range as of early July. After dipping below $100,000 in June, Bitcoin recovered quickly and is now approaching a significant supply zone between $109,000 and $110,000. Market momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently show a neutral stance, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. This equilibrium points to the possibility of a breakout if buying interest intensifies.
Analysts highlight the $104,000 to $106,000 range as a critical support area. Maintaining levels above this band keeps the market outlook positive. A breakout above $110,000 could propel Bitcoin towards ambitious targets around $114,500 or even $125,000. This bullish scenario is supported by increasing trading volumes, signaling growing investor attention and potential volatility ahead.
The Crucial Role of the 50-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA)
One of the most important technical indicators Benjamin Cowen emphasizes is Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA. This moving average has proven to be a more reliable harbinger of bull market health than shorter-term support bands. Historically, as long as Bitcoin closes weekly above the 50-week SMA, the bull market remains intact.
In recent years, Bitcoin tested the bull market support band — consisting of the 20-week estimate and 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) — several times, notably in the third quarters of 2023 and 2024, and again in early 2025. When pullbacks occurred below the support band, Bitcoin often found a strong bounce off the 50-week SMA, continuing its upward trajectory.
Currently, the 50-week SMA sits near $86,000. Benjamin Cowen is confident that even if Bitcoin experiences a pullback in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, this level will act as a vital floor. Should Bitcoin hold above it, the path is clear for higher lows and subsequent new highs, preserving the integrity of the ongoing bull market.
Understanding Bitcoin Season vs. Altcoin Season
One of the defining themes in cryptocurrency cycles is the alternation between “Bitcoin season” and “altcoin season.” Altcoin season refers to periods when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin dominance (the share of Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market) to drop. Conversely, Bitcoin season is when Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, and dominance rises.
Benjamin Cowen explains that the last clear alt seasons occurred in 2017 and again in late 2020 to early 2021. These were marked by sharp declines in Bitcoin dominance as altcoins surged against the US dollar. However, since then, the market has been in a prolonged Bitcoin season, much like what was observed in 2018 and 2019, where Bitcoin dominance steadily increased.
Why Altcoins Are Struggling to Outperform Bitcoin
During Bitcoin seasons, altcoins generally lose value relative to Bitcoin. Even altcoins considered “strong” typically oscillate around previous lows against Bitcoin, rarely sustaining long-term gains. Historically, before altcoin seasons, the altcoin market’s value against Bitcoin dropped to around 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap — a level not seen in recent years.
Cowan points out that the altcoin market has been slowly bleeding against Bitcoin, but it hasn’t reached the lows necessary to signal a new alt season. This slow decline suggests two possible paths:
- Rip the Band-Aid Off: A rapid drop of altcoins to their range lows against Bitcoin, ending the prolonged bleed and allowing the market to move on.
- Slow Bleed Continues: A drawn-out decline that could last until November or later, similar to patterns seen in past cycles.
Either scenario reflects a market still favoring Bitcoin’s dominance and resilience, reinforcing the strategy of maintaining a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio.
Portfolio Strategy: Prioritizing Bitcoin Over Altcoins
Given this landscape, Benjamin Cowen advocates for keeping most of your crypto holdings in Bitcoin rather than altcoins. He accepts the risk that Bitcoin’s price could dip in the short term but remains confident as long as the 50-week SMA continues to hold as support. This approach prioritizes Bitcoin’s solid market structure and long-term potential over the volatile and often unpredictable altcoin market.
Many investors share this viewpoint, recognizing Bitcoin as a safer harbor amid market instability. Altcoins tend to bleed value back to Bitcoin during pullbacks, making Bitcoin the more reliable asset in turbulent times.
Market Outlook and Upcoming Volatility
The weeks ahead could be volatile as markets react to economic data and geopolitical events. Positive news such as low unemployment and subdued inflation typically supports Bitcoin’s price, while unexpected shifts in yield curves or geopolitical tensions could introduce risks.
Benjamin Cowen reminds us that markets don’t need a reason to go up; they need a reason to go down. This mindset encourages a focus on fundamental support levels and technical indicators rather than short-term noise.
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin the Right Bet for You?
As Bitcoin nears new all-time highs and altcoins continue to struggle against Bitcoin dominance, the evidence points toward Bitcoin being the stronger, more resilient investment choice in 2025. By monitoring key technical levels like the 50-week SMA and understanding the ongoing Bitcoin season, investors can better position themselves for long-term success.
Do you agree with Benjamin Cowen’s focus on Bitcoin over altcoins right now? Are you holding mostly BTC, or do you prefer a mix of altcoins? Share your thoughts below and stay informed as this dynamic market continues to unfold.
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