Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin: Why BlackRock Just Unleashed the Biggest BTC Bull Run Trigger

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Bitcoin’s price journey since the launch of ETFs has been a fascinating study in human behavior and institutional finance. In recent months, we’ve seen Bitcoin move through distinct phases — from rapid gains to sideways consolidation — all while a major shift is unfolding behind the scenes. This transformation is not just about price; it’s about how traditional investors are finally gaining access and confidence in Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, offers a data-driven perspective that cuts through the hype. His insights reveal why the current period is a once-in-a-decade accumulation window and why the next 6 to 12 months could see Bitcoin break through psychological price barriers, potentially reaching $200,000 or more. Let’s dive into the factors driving this historic moment in cryptocurrency and bitcoin investing.

Table of Contents

Bitcoin’s Price Movement: Two Phases of Mechanical Progress

Since ETFs were approved, Bitcoin’s price has moved in almost a mechanical way. Initially, it surged from $50,000 to $72,000, fueled by real institutional inflows rather than speculation or hype. This breakout was significant because it reflected actual demand from institutions and Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) who previously lacked access.

Following this surge, Bitcoin treaded water for about six months, oscillating between $60,000 and $70,000. This pause was caused by a "wall of sellers" at the previous all-time high of $69,000 — people who had been waiting years to break even and finally chose to exit their positions. Once that supply was absorbed, Bitcoin took another leap, climbing from $72,000 to $100,000.

Since hitting $100,000, Bitcoin has again been consolidating. This is not due to a drop in demand but because $100,000 is another psychological level where sellers emerge. As Matt Hougan puts it, “people are just people” — many want to take profits at round numbers. However, the steady demand continues to "chew through" these sellers, and once that wall thins out, the next price move could come swiftly.

The Summer of Accumulation: Institutional Demand is Real and Growing

Two major changes in the past 18 months have reshaped Bitcoin’s market dynamics. First, regulatory improvements and the launch of ETFs have made it significantly easier and safer for traditional investors to access Bitcoin. This has derisked the asset in the eyes of many institutions.

Second, rising global debts, deficits, and concerns about fiat currency debasement have created a sense of urgency among investors to gain exposure to hard assets like Bitcoin. Bitwise, which works closely with large institutional investors and wealth management platforms, observes that every week a new platform opens up Bitcoin exposure to its clients. This means trillions of dollars of new capital are gradually becoming available to Bitcoin investors.

Matt Hougan calls this period the "summer of accumulation" — a rare window where investors can front-run massive institutional inflows. Every sideways tick in Bitcoin’s price is a gift, providing more time to accumulate before the largest money in the world starts flowing in.

The Safe Haven Shift: From Treasuries to Gold and Bitcoin

For decades, US Treasuries were the go-to safe haven during financial or geopolitical crises. However, recent data highlighted by economist Mohammed El Erian shows that this is no longer the case. In recent crises, investors have not flocked to Treasuries; instead, the capital has rotated into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.

This shift represents a sea change in global portfolio construction. Bitcoin is increasingly viewed less as a volatile tech stock and more as a macro hedge — a digital safe haven in a world of rising instability. During the recent tariff tantrum, Bitcoin even demonstrated an inverse correlation with stocks for the first time since ETFs were introduced, holding up as a risk-off asset while the Nasdaq fell.

Bitcoin’s Evolving Role: From Risk Asset to Macro Hedge

Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities is gradually decreasing. While it may fall alongside stocks during immediate shocks, it typically recovers and outperforms over the following weeks. This decoupling is a natural evolution as Bitcoin becomes a less risky and more hedging-oriented asset.

One striking example is the divergence in house prices denominated in Bitcoin versus fiat currencies. While dollar-based home prices have soared, Bitcoin-denominated prices are falling, underscoring Bitcoin’s strength as a store of value amid fiat debasement. Since COVID-19, the dollar has lost about 28% of its value, while Bitcoin is up roughly 30 times.

Matt Hougan describes this as a "silent crash," an accelerating erosion of fiat purchasing power that Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to hedge against.

Looking Ahead: Why 2026 Could Defy Previous Cycles

Historically, Bitcoin’s market cycles have been driven by two main forces: the four-year halving events and the economic cycle tied to monetary liquidity and interest rates. However, Hougan argues that both these drivers are losing their potency.

  • The halving’s impact on supply diminishes each cycle — mathematically, it halves the supply reduction every time.
  • Monetary policy is no longer following the same four-year rhythm. Interest rates have already peaked around 4.5%, and the next move is likely downward, with monetary liquidity accelerating, not slowing.

In contrast, institutional capital inflows represent a longer-term 5 to 10-year trend that is more powerful than these historical drivers. This structural shift in adoption suggests that the 2026 cycle may be less volatile but more sustained and explosive in the long run.

However, volatility remains. Leverage in futures, lending, and debt markets could still cause 40-50% pullbacks, but the days of 70-80% crashes may be behind us. These corrections should be viewed as opportunities to accumulate rather than panic.

Supply and Demand: The Engine Behind Bitcoin’s Price

The fundamental supply-demand mismatch in Bitcoin is clear. Bitcoin’s annual new issuance is about 165,000 coins, but demand from ETFs, corporations like MicroStrategy, and governments far exceeds that — possibly reaching millions of coins per year in aggregate. This means existing holders must sell to meet demand, but the number of willing sellers is shrinking.

Bitcoin’s price since the ETF launch reflects this dynamic. It rose from $50,000 to $72,000, paused as sellers at the old all-time high took profits, then surged to $100,000, where it is again consolidating due to sellers at this psychological barrier. As demand continues to chew through these sellers, the next breakout could push Bitcoin to $150,000, $200,000, or beyond.

Bitwise’s baseline prediction is $200,000 by the end of this year, with parity to gold — around $1 million per Bitcoin — by the end of the decade. While these are not guarantees and carry risk, they are grounded in supply-demand fundamentals and institutional adoption trends.

Conclusion: The Closing Window to Front-Run Institutional Capital

We are at the tail end of a historic opportunity to front-run the largest capital reallocation in modern financial history. Bitcoin is transitioning from a niche asset to a core allocation in global portfolios. The next leg up, whether it reaches $150,000 or $200,000, will be driven by math, access, and institutional inevitability — not hype.

If you’re watching this and wondering if Bitcoin can reach gold parity this decade, the data and institutional behaviors suggest it’s more likely than ever. The time to position yourself ahead of this wave is now.

What’s your target for Bitcoin? Is $200,000 just the beginning, or is $1 million per coin still too conservative? Let’s keep the conversation going.

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