It’s a scorching 99° day, perfect for staying indoors and diving into some serious crypto talk. Today, we’re unpacking a hot topic that’s shaking up markets and the crypto world alike: the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Are we at war? How is this impacting Bitcoin and altcoins? And what should crypto investors expect next? Let’s break it down.
The War Question: Are We in Conflict with Iran?
The headlines are buzzing with news about Israel and Iran exchanging bombings, with Iran relentlessly targeting Israel and Jerusalem. The Iron Dome defense system is struggling to keep up, and the situation has taken a sharp turn as the U.S. stepped in last week.
Contrary to earlier expectations that any U.S. involvement might take weeks to unfold, former President Trump ordered airstrikes on three Iranian cities harboring nuclear facilities. These strikes, conducted with B2 bombers using bunker-buster bombs, targeted uranium storage and underground nuclear program sites, effectively obliterating Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
This sudden move surprised many—including Trump’s supporters—since during his campaigns, Trump consistently promised to “drain the swamp” by cutting unnecessary foreign aid and avoiding entangling wars. His stance was always “America First,” focusing on reducing spending and keeping the U.S. out of overseas conflicts.
Yet, here we are, witnessing the opposite. Influential figures like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Ben Shapiro, once staunch Trump allies, are now openly criticizing this decision. Even Joe Rogan and others have voiced their concerns.
Politicians like JD Vance and Mark Rubio clarified that while the U.S. is not “at war” with Iran per se, it is engaged in a war against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The U.S. sees itself as the global policeman, aiming to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons that could trigger a catastrophic global conflict.
However, this echoes memories of the Iraq invasion 20 years ago, when the U.S. justified war over alleged weapons of mass destruction that were never found. That history fuels skepticism and fear about Iran’s retaliation.
The Retaliation Threat and Oil Market Impact
Iran isn’t taking this lightly. Their parliament voted to cut off the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint where 25% of the world’s oil supply passes. While their National Security Council has yet to approve this, if it happens, it could send oil prices soaring and spark global inflation.
The U.S. and China are both urging Iran not to take this step, aware of the economic and geopolitical chaos it would unleash. The question remains: Would such an act prompt further U.S. military action or even invasion? The uncertainty is weighing heavily on global markets.
Why Is Bitcoin Dropping? What’s Happening with Altcoins?
With all this geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin has dipped below $100,000—a level not seen since early May. Altcoins, meanwhile, have taken a harsh beating.
Why? Because investors fear prolonged war, rising oil prices, and increased government spending that contradicts previous promises to cut deficits. The massive costs of war—like the billion-dollar bombs and B2 bomber sorties—add to concerns about escalating national debt and inflation.
Bitcoin is often seen as a market forecaster since it trades 24/7. The recent sell-off hints at a potential bloodbath in traditional U.S. markets, possibly starting Monday and lasting through the week unless tensions ease.
World leaders from Japan, Europe, and China are calling for de-escalation, hoping to avoid further conflict. If peace talks or ceasefires emerge, markets could rebound sharply. Likewise, if Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is withdrawn, that would ease fears and stabilize prices.
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Strength in the Storm
Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains relatively strong. Technical analysis suggests a bounce could happen around $95,000, with a quick recovery above $100,000 being a very positive sign. Holding above $100K is psychologically crucial for investor confidence.
Altcoins, however, tell a different story. Ethereum is down to around $2,200, with the risk of falling below $2,000. Other big names like Solana, Sui, and XRP are also dropping, many breaking below key moving averages—a bearish sign.
The main reason? Retail investors, often dubbed “lettuce hands” for their tendency to panic sell, are dumping altcoins amid fears of a prolonged war, a dead altcoin season, and a stalled bull market. Meanwhile, institutional investors holding Bitcoin are mostly holding steady, showing greater conviction in Bitcoin’s store of value.
Is Altcoin Season Dead or Just Delayed?
Looking at past crypto cycles (2017, 2020, 2021), Bitcoin dominance typically peaks in the 60-70% range before dropping sharply as altcoins surge during “altcoin season.” This usually happens around April or May.
But now, in June going into July, Bitcoin dominance is still climbing toward the high 60s, nearing 70%, with no altcoin surge in sight.
This can be interpreted two ways:
- Altcoin Season May Not Happen: Weak retail interest and selling pressure could mean altcoins remain underperformers. Only altcoins with catalysts—like ETFs or promising dApps—might do well.
- Altcoin Season Is Delayed: Macro factors like war, tariffs, and institutional adoption are slowing the cycle. Once Bitcoin dominance hits 70-75%, altcoins could finally see a big money inflow.
In past cycles, altcoin booms were driven by themes like ICOs in 2017 and NFTs plus memes in 2021. Right now, the only theme is a weak meme boom, which hasn’t delivered the same excitement or returns.
With too many projects lacking real users or unique value, and no clear catalyst on the horizon, the outlook for altcoins remains cautious.
My Crypto Strategy Amid the Uncertainty
Given all this, my strategy is simple: focus on Bitcoin and the big-cap altcoins that have real activity and upcoming ETFs. I’m not adding to altcoins right now; I’m just buying Bitcoin, especially with a potentially rough week ahead.
If the market crashes hard and Bitcoin dips to the $95,000 range, that might be a good buying opportunity. But until then, I’m holding steady and watching closely.
The big unknown remains Iran’s next move. If they escalate by attacking U.S. embassies or military assets, that would be a de facto declaration of war, potentially escalating the conflict dramatically. Hopefully, both sides exercise restraint to avoid catastrophe.
Final Thoughts: Hope for De-escalation and Market Recovery
It’s a tense moment for crypto and global markets alike. The hope is for peace talks, ceasefires, or at least a rollback of threats like closing the Strait of Hormuz. Any sign of easing tensions could spark a quick market recovery.
Until then, stay informed, stay cautious, and focus on the crypto assets with the strongest fundamentals—Bitcoin first and foremost.
Stay cool out there, and keep your eyes on the charts and the news.
Is the U.S. Now at War? | My Next Crypto Moves on Bitcoin and Altcoins. There are any Is the U.S. Now at War? | My Next Crypto Moves on Bitcoin and Altcoins in here.
